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Revealing Geography-Driven Signals in Zone-Level Claim Frequency Models: An Empirical Study using Environmental and Visual Predictors

Alfonso-Sánchez, Sherly, Bravo, Cristián, Stankova, Kristina G.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This study examines how geographic information from alternative data sources can be incorporated into actuarial models for Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL) claim prediction under such constraints. Using the BeMTPL97 dataset, we adopt a zone-level modeling framework and evaluate predictive performance on unseen postcodes. Geographic information is introduced through two channels: environmental indicators from OpenStreetMap and CORINE Land Cover, and orthoimagery released by the Belgian National Geographic Institute for academic use. We evaluate the predictive contribution of coordinates, environmental features, and image embeddings across three baseline models: generalized linear models (GLMs), regularized GLMs, and gradient-boosted trees, while raw imagery is modeled using convolutional neural networks. Our results show that augmenting actuarial variables with constructed geographic information improves accuracy. Across experiments, both linear and tree-based models benefit most from combining coordinates with environmental features extracted at 5 km scale, while smaller neighborhoods also improve baseline specifications. Generally, image embeddings do not improve performance when environmental features are available; however, when such features are absent, pretrained vision-transformer embeddings enhance accuracy and stability for regularized GLMs. Our results show that the predictive value of geographic information in zone-level MTPL frequency models depends less on model complexity than on how geography is represented, and illustrate that geographic context can be incorporated despite limited individual-level spatial information.


Starting Off on the Wrong Foot: Pitfalls in Data Preparation

Guo, Jiayi, Dong, Panyi, Quan, Zhiyu

arXiv.org Machine Learning

When working with real-world insurance data, practitioners often encounter challenges during the data preparation stage that can undermine the statistical validity and reliability of downstream modeling. This study illustrates that conventional data preparation procedures such as random train-test partitioning, often yield unreliable and unstable results when confronted with highly imbalanced insurance loss data. To mitigate these limitations, we propose a novel data preparation framework leveraging two recent statistical advancements: support points for representative data splitting to ensure distributional consistency across partitions, and the Chatterjee correlation coefficient for initial, non-parametric feature screening to capture feature relevance and dependence structure. We further integrate these theoretical advances into a unified, efficient framework that also incorporates missing-data handling, and embed this framework within our custom InsurAutoML pipeline. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using both simulated datasets and datasets often cited in the academic literature. Our findings definitively demonstrate that incorporating statistically rigorous data preparation methods not only significantly enhances model robustness and interpretability but also substantially reduces computational resource requirements across diverse insurance loss modeling tasks. This work provides a crucial methodological upgrade for achieving reliable results in high stakes insurance applications.


Quantum Amplitude Estimation for Catastrophe Insurance Tail-Risk Pricing: Empirical Convergence and NISQ Noise Analysis

Kirke, Alexis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Classical Monte Carlo methods for pricing catastrophe insurance tail risk converge at order reciprocal root N, requiring large simulation budgets to resolve upper-tail percentiles of the loss distribution. This sample-sparsity problem can lead to AI models trained on impoverished tail data, producing poorly calibrated risk estimates where insolvency risk is greatest. Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE), following Montanaro, achieves convergence approaching order reciprocal N in oracle queries - a quadratic speedup that, at scale, would enable high-resolution tail estimation within practical budgets. We validate this advantage empirically using a Qiskit Aer simulator with genuine Grover amplification. A complete pipeline encodes fitted lognormal catastrophe distributions into quantum oracles via amplitude encoding, producing small readout probabilities that enable safe Grover amplification with up to k=16 iterations. Seven experiments on synthetic and real (NOAA Storm Events, 58,028 records) data yield three main findings: an oracle-model advantage, that strong classical baselines win when analytical access is available, and that discretisation, not estimation, is the current bottleneck.








Jack Ma-backed Ant bets on AI health care in 69 billion sector race

The Japan Times

Roughly five years ago, Ant Group reined in its ambitions after a derailed initial public offering. Today, the Jack Ma-backed company is betting on a very different business to fuel its next phase of growth: health care powered by artificial intelligence. What began as a digital payments platform has become one of China's biggest investors in medical AI, backing software that fields patient questions and connects them with doctors, pharmacies and insurers. In November, Ant elevated its health unit to the same level as operations including Alipay and its lending businesses, underscoring how central the effort has become to the company's strategy. After years focused on consumer lending, wealth management and insurance technology, health care is now where executives believe AI can unlock the next wave of growth, leveraging Ant's massive user base to become its biggest business outside of payments.